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In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case.. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years ...
A reference class problem arises: the plausibility inferred will depend on whether we take the past experience of one person, of humanity, or of the earth. A consequence is that each referent would hold different plausibility of the statement. In Bayesianism, any probability is a conditional probability given what one knows. That varies from ...
[50] [13] [49] The conditional probability of winning by switching is 1/3 / 1/3 + 1/6 , which is 2 / 3 . [2] The conditional probability table below shows how 300 cases, in all of which the player initially chooses door 1, would be split up, on average, according to the location of the car and the choice of door to open by the host.
The Boy or Girl paradox surrounds a set of questions in probability theory, which are also known as The Two Child Problem, [1] Mr. Smith's Children [2] and the Mrs. Smith Problem. The initial formulation of the question dates back to at least 1959, when Martin Gardner featured it in his October 1959 "Mathematical Games column" in Scientific ...
Probability is the branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. [note 1] [1] [2] This number is often expressed as a percentage (%), ranging from 0% to ...
This is a list of probability topics. It overlaps with the (alphabetical) list of statistical topics. There are also the outline of probability and catalog of articles in probability theory. For distributions, see List of probability distributions. For journals, see list of probability journals.
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