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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
In spring 2010, FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6, with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win. [538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February ...
Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [89] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability. [90] [91] Donald Trump won the election.
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...
538 Econ. Winner Generic ballot polls. The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections. ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...