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In statistics, deviance is a goodness-of-fit statistic for a statistical model; it is often used for statistical hypothesis testing. It is a generalization of the idea of using the sum of squares of residuals (SSR) in ordinary least squares to cases where model-fitting is achieved by maximum likelihood .
Absolute deviation in statistics is a metric that measures the overall difference between individual data points and a central value, typically the mean or median of a dataset. It is determined by taking the absolute value of the difference between each data point and the central value and then averaging these absolute differences. [4]
The RMSD serves to aggregate the magnitudes of the errors in predictions for various data points into a single measure of predictive power. RMSD is a measure of accuracy , to compare forecasting errors of different models for a particular dataset and not between datasets, as it is scale-dependent.
The reason for this choice is that not only is the deviance a good measure of the goodness of fit, it is also approximately chi-squared distributed, with the approximation improving as the number of data points (K) increases, becoming exactly chi-square distributed in the limit of an infinite number of data points.
A large standard deviation indicates that the data points can spread far from the mean and a small standard deviation indicates that they are clustered closely around the mean. For example, each of the three populations {0, 0, 14, 14}, {0, 6, 8, 14} and {6, 6, 8, 8} has a mean of 7. Their standard deviations are 7, 5, and 1, respectively.
Analogously to how the median generalizes to the geometric median (GM) in multivariate data, MAD can be generalized to the median of distances to GM (MADGM) in n dimensions. This is done by replacing the absolute differences in one dimension by Euclidean distances of the data points to the geometric median in n dimensions. [5]
The average absolute deviation (AAD) of a data set is the average of the absolute deviations from a central point. It is a summary statistic of statistical dispersion or variability. In the general form, the central point can be a mean , median , mode , or the result of any other measure of central tendency or any reference value related to the ...
For this reason, describing data sets via their standard deviation or root mean square deviation is often preferred over using the variance. In the dice example the standard deviation is √ 2.9 ≈ 1.7 , slightly larger than the expected absolute deviation of 1.5.