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If human confidence had perfect calibration, judgments with 100% confidence would be correct 100% of the time, 90% confidence correct 90% of the time, and so on for the other levels of confidence. By contrast, the key finding is that confidence exceeds accuracy so long as the subject is answering hard questions about an unfamiliar topic.
There are plenty of examples of overly confident experts leading followers astray. Think back to the 1998 implosion of Long-Term Capital Management , a hedge fund run by several Nobel Prize winners.
The rational model of the Dunning–Kruger effect explains the observed regression toward the mean not as a statistical artifact but as the result of prior beliefs. [13] [30] [20] If low performers expect to perform well, this can cause them to give an overly positive self-assessment. This model uses a psychological interpretation that differs ...
Illustration for John Milton's Paradise Lost by Gustave Doré (1866). The spiritual descent of Lucifer into Satan, one of the most famous examples of hubris.. Hubris (/ ˈ h juː b r ɪ s /; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage'), or less frequently hybris (/ ˈ h aɪ b r ɪ s /), [1] describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride [2] or dangerous ...
“Confidence is the duct tape of communication — it can patch over a lot of holes, at least temporarily,” Dr. Gerharz shared. “Speak boldly enough, and people might just overlook the fact ...
Among them were “delulu,” meaning to be “utterly mistaken or unrealistic in one’s ideas or expectations,” and “looksmaxxing”, a word commonly used in online male communities that ...
According to focalism this means that the individual will place greater significance on their own ability or characteristic than that of the comparison target. This also means that in theory if, in an experiment on the better-than-average effect, the questions were phrased so that the self and other were switched (e.g., "compare the average ...
In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one. See also under {{Section link}}: required section parameter(s) missing: Lag effect The phenomenon whereby learning is greater when studying is spread out over time, as opposed to studying the same amount of time in a single session. See also spacing ...