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The risk-neutral measure would be the measure corresponding to an expectation of the payoff with a linear utility. An implied probability measure, that is one implied from the current observable/posted/traded prices of the relevant instruments.
The theorem is especially important in the theory of financial mathematics as it explains how to convert from the physical measure, which describes the probability that an underlying instrument (such as a share price or interest rate) will take a particular value or values, to the risk-neutral measure which is a very useful tool for evaluating ...
To price a derivative whose payoff is a function of one or more underlying assets, we evaluate the expected value of its discounted payoff under a risk-neutral measure. A risk-neutral measure, also known as an equivalent martingale measure, is one which is equivalent to the real-world measure, and which is arbitrage-free: under such a measure ...
In a discrete (i.e. finite state) market, the following hold: [2] The First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing: A discrete market on a discrete probability space (,,) is arbitrage-free if, and only if, there exists at least one risk neutral probability measure that is equivalent to the original probability measure, P.
For instance, a risk-neutral measure is a probability measure which assumes that the current value of assets is the expected value of the future payoff taken with respect to that same risk neutral measure (i.e. calculated using the corresponding risk neutral density function), and discounted at the risk-free rate.
A particularly important measure of moneyness is the likelihood that the derivative will expire in the money, in the risk-neutral measure. It can be measured in percentage probability of expiring in the money, which is the forward value of a binary call option with the given strike, and is equal to the auxiliary N ( d 2 ) term in the Black ...
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Martingale pricing is a pricing approach based on the notions of martingale and risk neutrality.The martingale pricing approach is a cornerstone of modern quantitative finance and can be applied to a variety of derivatives contracts, e.g. options, futures, interest rate derivatives, credit derivatives, etc.