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That poll ended up being wrong, as Trump is currently holding onto a 13-point lead in the state, but other Iowa pollsters got it much closer, pegging Trump’s winning margin in the high single ...
Selzer, whose poll was off by more than 15 points at press time, reflected serenely: "The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ...
The poll was seen as a likely outlier at the time — but even so, its miss is notable: Trump ended up winning the state by 13 points. Selzer said after the election that she’s reviewing the ...
Those results were within our poll's margin of error, meaning we were correct to declare it "too close to call" — and we would have been wrong to say Clinton was ahead. 2024 will be a close election
On Truth Social Sunday morning, Trump touted his support for Iowa farmers and denigrated the poll for being conducted by "a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time." But the Iowa ...
More so than the California governor's race the year before, [26] the Washington-Epton matchup evinced strong and overt racial overtones throughout the campaign. [27] [28] Two polls conducted approximately two weeks before the election showed Washington with a 14-point lead in the race. A third conducted just three days before the election ...
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks.
Franklin said those changes may be why his poll underestimated Trump's margin by about 2 points this year, compared to a 4-point miss in 2020. The survey non-response problem also predates Trump's ...