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Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P composite real price–earnings ratio and interest rates (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. [1] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "the stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price–earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, [1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, [2] is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings ( moving average ), adjusted for inflation. [ 3 ]
1921–1929: Bull market. Over the next eight years, the Dow increases nearly 500%, and eventually grows to a closing high of 381.17 on September 3, 1929. 1929–1949: Bear market. The stock market crash of 1929, or Black Tuesday, precedes, as well as causes the Great Depression. The Dow plunges 89% to 41.22 on July 8, 1932, thus erasing 33 ...
In October, chief economist Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management wrote, "Looking at the historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward PE ratio and subsequent three-year returns in the ...
Image source: Getty Images. A huge valuation gap that can't be ignored. One of the most commonly used valuation metrics in investing is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
Between 1995 and 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%. It reached a price–earnings ratio of 200, dwarfing the peak price–earnings ratio of 80 for the Japanese Nikkei 225 during the Japanese asset price bubble of 1991. [9]
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Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P 500 price–earnings ratio (P/E) versus long-term Treasury yields (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance. [1]The P/E ratio is the inverse of the E/P ratio, and from 1921 to 1928 and 1987 to 2000, supports the Fed model (i.e. P/E ratio moves inversely to the treasury yield), however, for all other periods, the relationship of the Fed model fails; [2] [3] even ...