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The problem is considered a paradox because two seemingly logical analyses yield conflicting answers regarding which choice maximizes the player's payout. Considering the expected utility when the probability of the predictor being right is certain or near-certain, the player should choose box B.
Berkson's paradox arises because the conditional probability of given within the three-cell subset equals the conditional probability in the overall population, but the unconditional probability within the subset is inflated relative to the unconditional probability in the overall population, hence, within the subset, the presence of decreases ...
The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, based nominally on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975.
Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given two events A and B, the probability of A happening given that B has happened is assumed to be about the same as the probability of B given A, when there is actually no evidence for this assumption.
The unconditional probability combines these (sort of like an average). The probabilities are 1 / (1 + p) and 1 / (1 + (1-p)). To combine them you don't just add and divide by 2 (like you would to get the average of two numbers), but you can combine them to get the unconditional probability. If you do combine them, you get 2/3.
The Bertrand paradox is a problem within the classical interpretation of probability theory. Joseph Bertrand introduced it in his work Calcul des probabilités (1889) [1] as an example to show that the principle of indifference may not produce definite, well-defined results for probabilities if it is applied uncritically when the domain of possibilities is infinite.
Given two events A and B from the sigma-field of a probability space, with the unconditional probability of B being greater than zero (i.e., P(B) > 0), the conditional probability of A given B (()) is the probability of A occurring if B has or is assumed to have happened. [5]
The problem of points, also called the problem of division of the stakes, is a classical problem in probability theory. One of the famous problems that motivated the beginnings of modern probability theory in the 17th century, it led Blaise Pascal to the first explicit reasoning about what today is known as an expected value .