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If a vector of predictions is generated from a sample of data points on all variables, and is the vector of observed values of the variable being predicted, with ^ being the predicted values (e.g. as from a least-squares fit), then the within-sample MSE of the predictor is computed as
In statistics, expected mean squares (EMS) are the expected values of certain statistics arising in partitions of sums of squares in the analysis of variance (ANOVA). They can be used for ascertaining which statistic should appear in the denominator in an F-test for testing a null hypothesis that a particular effect is absent.
The definitional equation of sample variance is = (¯), where the divisor is called the degrees of freedom (DF), the summation is called the sum of squares (SS), the result is called the mean square (MS) and the squared terms are deviations from the sample mean. ANOVA estimates 3 sample variances: a total variance based on all the observation ...
It is remarkable that the sum of squares of the residuals and the sample mean can be shown to be independent of each other, using, e.g. Basu's theorem.That fact, and the normal and chi-squared distributions given above form the basis of calculations involving the t-statistic:
The ANOVA tests the null hypothesis, which states that samples in all groups are drawn from populations with the same mean values. To do this, two estimates are made of the population variance. These estimates rely on various assumptions . The ANOVA produces an F-statistic, the ratio of the variance calculated among the means to the variance ...
When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.
In mathematics and its applications, the mean square is normally defined as the arithmetic mean of the squares of a set of numbers or of a random variable. [ 1 ] It may also be defined as the arithmetic mean of the squares of the deviations between a set of numbers and a reference value (e.g., may be a mean or an assumed mean of the data), [ 2 ...
It then follows that the statistic = / / = = (¯ ^) / = = (¯) / has an F-distribution with the corresponding number of degrees of freedom in the numerator and the denominator, provided that the model is correct.