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2016 United States presidential election ← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 → 538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win Opinion polls Turnout 60.1% (1.5 pp) Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 304 [a] 227 [a] States carried 30 + ME-02 20 + DC Popular vote ...
The 2016 election was the first general election that now former President Donald Trump ran in as a major party candidate, defeating then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Trump won the ...
In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump. (Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome ...
[1] [2] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts. Retrospective analyses differ as to why the polls and commentators interpreting them were unable to correctly forecast the result of the ...
Clinton won almost every pre-election poll in Minnesota by margins ranging from 5 to 11 points. Trump won one poll in November 2015, 45% to 42%, and one poll in September 2016 showed a tie. The average of the last two polls had Clinton up 50% to 41%. [22] The last poll had Clinton up 53% to 42%.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
Trump's reduced margin of victory made Georgia one of eleven states (plus the District of Columbia) to vote more Democratic in 2016 than in 2012. [4] This trend would continue into 2020, when Trump became the first Republican to lose Georgia since 1992, though he won it back in 2024 by a 2.2% margin.