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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by ...
48.4%: 47.2% 4.4% Harris +1.2%: 538 [2] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 48.0%: 46.8% 5.2% ... 4% 2%: TIPP [24] October 28–30, 2024 1,265 (LV)
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
The latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 1.4-point lead over Trump. On average, Harris was marginally ahead of Trump, but this gap has closed ...
September 30 – October 2, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50%: 4% [m] 46% 50%: 4% OnMessage Inc. (R) [61] [G] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47%: 8% Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [62] [H] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50%: 2% [g] InsiderAdvantage (R) [63] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0 ...
The "538 model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican Scott Brown would win. [ 538 29 ] In spring 2010, FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6 , with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of ...
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied in the two states that are likely to decide the 2024 election, according to a poll. ... Pa., Friday, Aug. 30, 2024 ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...