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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by ...
4% 2%: Echelon Insights [23] October 28–31, 2024 1,328 (LV) ± 3.1% 49%: 47% 4% 2%: TIPP [24] October 28–30, 2024 1,265 (LV) ± 2.7% 48%: 48%: 4% — American Pulse Research & Polling [25] October 28–30, 2024 822 (LV) ± 2.8% 49%: 47% 4% 2%: RABA Research [26] October 29, 2024 781 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%: 44% 8% 4%: HarrisX/Forbes [27] October ...
At that time, Harris had a 2.8-percentage-point lead in our national polling average, not too different from her 2.6-point lead on Friday, Oct. 4 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Which way are key demographic ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored ...
[3] [4] [5] 538's new owner, Disney, hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model. [3] [4] On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. [2] The logo was replaced, with the name 538 used instead of FiveThirtyEight. On March 5, 2025, the website was ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...
According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November's election while Trump comes in at 49.3%. And now they're split across the board.