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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively.
In the second edition of The Black Swan, he posited that the foundations of quantitative economics are faulty and highly self-referential. He states that statistics is fundamentally incomplete as a field, as it cannot predict the risk of rare events, a problem that is acute in proportion to the rarity of these events.
Still, Spitznagel—who's utilized Nassim Taleb, the statistician and academic who popularized the concept of the rare and unexpected event called a “black swan,” as a “distinguished ...
Hedge funder famous for his ‘black swan’ strategy says there’s ‘something immoral’ about America’s reliance on debt—and future generations ‘will bear the burden for this’
A Black Swan fund is an investment fund based on the black swan theory that seek to reap big rewards from sharp market downturns. They became more known after the financial crisis of 2007–2008 . One example of a "Black Swan" fund is Universa, which was founded by Mark Spitznagel and advised by Nicholas Taleb .
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
Such concepts are compatible with the theory of the black swan. However Taleb has also stated that considering the power law as a model instead of a model with lighter tails (e.g., a Gaussian) "converts black swans into gray ones", in the sense that the power law model gives non-negligible probability to large events.