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Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.
[2] [3] A final estimate of the spectrum at a given frequency is obtained by averaging the estimates from the periodograms (at the same frequency) derived from non-overlapping portions of the original series. The method is used in physics, engineering, and applied mathematics. Common applications of Bartlett's method are frequency response ...
A cornerstone of EDM is recognition that time series observed from a dynamical system can be transformed into higher-dimensional state-spaces by time-delay embedding with Takens's theorem. The state-space models are evaluated based on in-sample fidelity to observations, conventionally with Pearson correlation between predictions and observations.
Rössler attractor reconstructed by Takens' theorem, using different delay lengths. Orbits around the attractor have a period between 5.2 and 6.2. In the study of dynamical systems, a delay embedding theorem gives the conditions under which a chaotic dynamical system can be reconstructed from a sequence of observations of the state of that system.
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, who used mathematical analysis (Laurent series and Fourier analysis) and statistical inference. [ 12 ] [ 13 ] ARMA models were popularized by a 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Jenkins, who expounded an iterative ( Box–Jenkins ) method for choosing and estimating them.
In stochastic processes, chaos theory and time series analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a method for determining the statistical self-affinity of a signal. It is useful for analysing time series that appear to be long-memory processes (diverging correlation time, e.g. power-law decaying autocorrelation function) or 1/f noise.
Cointegration is a statistical property of a collection (X 1, X 2, ..., X k) of time series variables. First, all of the series must be integrated of order d.Next, if a linear combination of this collection is integrated of order less than d, then the collection is said to be co-integrated.