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In probability and statistics, the PERT distributions are a family of continuous probability distributions defined by the minimum (a), most likely (b) and maximum (c) values that a variable can take. It is a transformation of the four-parameter beta distribution with an additional assumption that its expected value is
PERT network chart for a seven-month project with five milestones (10 through 50) and six activities (A through F). The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used in project management, which was designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project.
Beta distribution is a combination of probability theory and statistics, most commonly used in project management for time allocation and to analyse random variables. Critical path drag is a project management metric used to schedule analysis and compression in the critical path method of scheduling.
The critical path method (CPM), or critical path analysis (CPA), is an algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. [1] A critical path is determined by identifying the longest stretch of dependent activities and measuring the time [ 2 ] required to complete them from start to finish.
The PERT distribution is a special case of the four-parameter beta distribution. The uniform distribution or rectangular distribution on [a,b], where all points in a finite interval are equally likely, is a special case of the four-parameter Beta distribution.
For example, a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application. In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses: a = the best-case estimate; m = the most likely estimate; b = the worst-case estimate
Predictions of occurrence based on fitted probability distributions are subject to uncertainty, which arises from the following conditions: The true probability distribution of events may deviate from the fitted distribution, as the observed data series may not be totally representative of the real probability of occurrence of the phenomenon ...
A method that is commonly referred to as PERT is popularly used in STA. However, PERT is a misnomer, and the so-called PERT method discussed in most of the literature on timing analysis refers to the critical path method (CPM) [ 6 ] that is widely used in project management.