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In the Great Depression, GDP fell by 27% (the deepest after demobilization is the recession beginning in December 2007, during which GDP had fallen 5.1% by the second quarter of 2009) and the unemployment rate reached 24.9% (the highest since was the 10.8% rate reached during the 1981–1982 recession).
Blinder and Watson estimated that the economy was in recession for 49 quarters from 1949–2013; 8 of these quarters were under Democrats, with 41 under Republicans. [1] The 2020 recession brings that to 50 quarters total in recession, 42 under Republicans (84%) and 8 under Democrats (16%). [27]
The GDP bottom, or trough, was reached in the second quarter of 2009 (marking the technical end of the recession that is defined by "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales"). [3]
The slowdown in economic activity led to the recession of 1953, bringing an end to nearly four years of expansion. May 1954– Aug 1957 39 +2.5% +4.0%: Expansion resumed following a return to growth in May 1954. Employment and GDP growth slowed relative to the previous two expansions. April 1958– April 1960 24 +3.6% +5.6%
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury ...
The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters, [118] is a strong indicator of a recession as it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment. GDP per capita contraction [119]
To back up their forecast, a Deutsche Bank team led by Jim Reid, head of global economics and thematic research, earlier this month analyzed 34 U.S. recessions dating back to 1854, looking for ...