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The Harding Professorship of Statistics in Public Life (formerly known as the Winton Professorship of the Public Understanding of Risk) is a professorship within the Statistical Laboratory of the University of Cambridge. [1]
In September and October 2022, the Conservative Party government led by newly appointed prime minister Liz Truss faced a credibility crisis. It was caused by the September 2022 mini-budget and a disorganised vote in the House of Commons over a parliamentary motion to ban fracking, ultimately resulting in the loss of support of Conservative members of parliament (MPs).
www.statslab.cam.ac.uk /person /ds28 Sir David John Spiegelhalter (born 16 August 1953) is a British statistician and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge . [ 1 ] [ 3 ] [ 4 ] [ 5 ] From 2007 to 2018 he was Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge . [ 6 ]
UK intelligence assessments use the PHIA "probability yardstick" for communicating probability: The National Intelligence Council's recommendations described the use of a WEP paradigm (table 2) in combination with an assessment of confidence levels ("high, moderate, low") based on the scope and quality supporting information:
Uncertainty or incertitude refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information.It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown, and is particularly relevant for decision-making.
Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed in an attempt to define uncertainty, identify its effects and establish strategies for managing it. [1] Uncertainty management theory was the first theory to decline the idea that uncertainty is ...
On the eve the 2015 UK election, the site published a lengthy analysis [6] of opinion polling accuracy by its founder Matt Singh, based on decades of polling and election data. The report suggested that, contrary to the close race suggested by opinion polls and forecasts, the Conservative Party would win by more than six percentage points and ...
The UK government's second National Security Strategy was published in October 2010 under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government. It was titled "A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty". [3] It outlines threats facing the United Kingdom, and defences against these threats.