Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.) What was the correlation between the preliminary results and the urbanization index in the 2020 presidential election?
Campaign stops, and advertisements in local markets use limited resources. In 2020, Ohio is currently polling at 50-49, Trump, so it's close. But Biden probably should not invest too much time / money in Ohio, as he can comfortably win with states that are to it's left. 538 currently lists Ohio as the tipping point in 2.8% of simulations. But ...
I just read this Wikipedia article. It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes. That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes. But the total number should be 538. Where did the 7 votes go?
Most firms don't switch to LV until labor day. LV screens can increase accuracy on head-to-head matchups close to election day, but can also introduce a lot of bias; "house effects" are typically the result of a particular LV criteria set vs another, whereas A and RV groups don't suffer bad assumptions about the L-ness of the V.
Moreover postal votes trended blue, again 538 noted: Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for ...
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide. This result was consistent, going all the way back to Reagan's 1984 reelection.
The US Presidential election uses an "electoral college" system, where each state gets a certain number of "electors" (votes), and those electors cast the official votes for President. Each state's...
There is no additional tiebreaker. While 538 such candidates is impossible without several changes in the rules (even in Maine and Nebraska, two statewide electors are allocated together), a smaller number of ties like ten is possible. I suppose that you could have a bunch of faithless electors. But some states require that their electors vote ...
538 uses a t-distribution to account for "black swan" events: things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls. This means that 538 assigns a small probability to some very unlikely outcomes (Trump wins California, or Biden wins Utah) The Economist model doesn't.
538 is a shadow of its former self. There's no real lead, nobody to make a decision on how to handle the change of nominee. Perhaps it also would require someone to change some of the software. 538 was essentially de-funded by ABC and exists only in name, The 538 from 2008-2020 is gone.