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Consider this figure depicting a section of a Markov chain with states i, j, k and l and the corresponding transition probabilities. Here Kolmogorov's criterion implies that the product of probabilities when traversing through any closed loop must be equal, so the product around the loop i to j to l to k returning to i must be equal to the loop the other way round,
Markov chains are used in finance and economics to model a variety of different phenomena, including the distribution of income, the size distribution of firms, asset prices and market crashes. D. G. Champernowne built a Markov chain model of the distribution of income in 1953. [86]
A Markov chain with two states, A and E. In probability, a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) is a sequence of random variables, known as a stochastic process, in which the value of the next variable depends only on the value of the current variable, and not any variables in the past.
We say is Markov with initial distribution and rate matrix to mean: the trajectories of are almost surely right continuous, let be a modification of to have (everywhere) right-continuous trajectories, (()) = + almost surely (note to experts: this condition says is non-explosive), the state sequence (()) is a discrete-time Markov chain with ...
Intuitively, a stochastic matrix represents a Markov chain; the application of the stochastic matrix to a probability distribution redistributes the probability mass of the original distribution while preserving its total mass. If this process is applied repeatedly, the distribution converges to a stationary distribution for the Markov chain.
A game of snakes and ladders or any other game whose moves are determined entirely by dice is a Markov chain, indeed, an absorbing Markov chain. This is in contrast to card games such as blackjack, where the cards represent a 'memory' of the past moves. To see the difference, consider the probability for a certain event in the game.
The Markov chain central limit theorem can be guaranteed for functionals of general state space Markov chains under certain conditions. In particular, this can be done with a focus on Monte Carlo settings. An example of the application in a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) setting is the following: Consider a simple hard spheres model on a grid.
A Markov chain is said to be irreducible when every state can reach every other state through some sequence of transitions, and aperiodic if, for every state, the possible numbers of steps in sequences that start and end in that state have greatest common divisor one. An irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain necessarily has a stationary ...