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The concept of wild cards comes close to the black swan theory described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Black swans however can be seen as events that somehow are written in destiny (or the stars) and will occur anyhow. [7] The title refers to the "black swans" that existed already for millions of years in Australia ...
A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
Tail risk is then the chance of a loss occurring due to such events. These tail events are often referred to as black swan events and they can produce disastrous effects on the returns of the portfolio in a very short span of time. Fat tails suggest that the likelihood of such events is in fact greater than the one predicted by traditional ...
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
Hedge funder famous for his ‘black swan’ strategy says there’s ‘something immoral’ about America’s reliance on debt—and future generations ‘will bear the burden for this’
Informally, a basic statement is simply a statement that concerns only a finite number of specific instances in universal classes. In particular, an existential statement such as "there exists a black swan" is not a basic statement, because it is not specific about the instance. On the other hand, "this swan here is black" is a basic statement.
"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years.
The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
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