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Figure 1. Probabilistic parameters of a hidden Markov model (example) X — states y — possible observations a — state transition probabilities b — output probabilities. In its discrete form, a hidden Markov process can be visualized as a generalization of the urn problem with replacement (where each item from the urn is returned to the original urn before the next step). [7]
Suppose that one starts with $10, and one wagers $1 on an unending, fair, coin toss indefinitely, or until all of the money is lost. If represents the number of dollars one has after n tosses, with =, then the sequence {:} is a Markov process. If one knows that one has $12 now, then it would be expected that with even odds, one will either have ...
For example, a series of simple observations, such as a person's location in a room, can be interpreted to determine more complex information, such as in what task or activity the person is performing. Two kinds of Hierarchical Markov Models are the Hierarchical hidden Markov model [2] and the Abstract Hidden Markov Model. [3]
A hidden Markov model describes the joint probability of a collection of "hidden" and observed discrete random variables.It relies on the assumption that the i-th hidden variable given the (i − 1)-th hidden variable is independent of previous hidden variables, and the current observation variables depend only on the current hidden state.
A partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a generalization of a Markov decision process (MDP). A POMDP models an agent decision process in which it is assumed that the system dynamics are determined by an MDP, but the agent cannot directly observe the underlying state. Instead, it must maintain a sensor model (the probability ...
The Viterbi algorithm is a dynamic programming algorithm for obtaining the maximum a posteriori probability estimate of the most likely sequence of hidden states—called the Viterbi path—that results in a sequence of observed events. This is done especially in the context of Markov information sources and hidden Markov models (HMM).
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The forward algorithm, in the context of a hidden Markov model (HMM), is used to calculate a 'belief state': the probability of a state at a certain time, given the history of evidence. The process is also known as filtering. The forward algorithm is closely related to, but distinct from, the Viterbi algorithm.