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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.
This chart shows the trends in the partisan composition of the various state legislatures in the United States. In most cases the data point for each year is July 1, a time when few elections are scheduled. Most states hold legislative elections in the even numbered years, so the data points below are near the end of the term for most states.
Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Michigan: 15 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+1: 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Minnesota: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+1: 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D NE–01 [a] 1 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+9 [b] 56.0% R [b] 14. ...
At 538, we publish rolling averages for a variety of elections and questions, such as the 2024 presidential race nationally and in swing states, the president's approval rating, the favorability ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
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As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state's average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. PVIs for the states over time can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other. [4]