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Heuer outlines the ACH process in considerable depth in his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. [1] It consists of the following steps: Hypothesis – The first step of the process is to identify all potential hypotheses, preferably using a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. [1] The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the analyst must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth.
According to Ewen Montagu, John Godfrey devised this system when he was director of the Naval Intelligence Division (N.I.D.) around the time of World War II. [5] The system employed by the United States Armed Forces rates the reliability of the source as well as the information. The source reliability is rated between A (history of complete ...
Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. Intelligence errors are factual inaccuracies in analysis resulting from poor or missing data. Intelligence failure is systemic organizational surprise resulting from incorrect, missing ...
Cover of a National Intelligence Estimate. Analytic confidence is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability. The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model. An analytic confidence rating pairs with a statement ...
Some intelligence disciplines, especially technical ones, will analyze the same raw data in different ways for complementary purposes. For example, a signals intelligence collection platform will record all the electromagnetic signals it received from an antenna pointed to a particular target at a particular time.
Intelligence assessment also occurs toward the end of the intelligence cycle, during the analysis & production phase. [2] This phase comes after collection and processing but before dissemination to policymakers. [2] Assessments develop in response to leadership declaration requirements to inform decision-making.
Indicator analysis is a structured analytic technique used in intelligence analysis. It uses historical data to expose trends and identify upcoming major shifts in a subject area, helping the analyst provide evidence-based forecasts with reduced cognitive bias .