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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by ...
AtlasIntel: Trump 48.5%, Harris 47.4%, with third-party candidates included (Oct. 30-31; ... Harris 47.2% (Oct. 30-31; 1,212 likely voters; margin of error: ±3 percentage points)
According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November's election while Trump comes in at 49.3%. And now they're split across the board.
4% 2%: TIPP [24] October 28–30, 2024 1,265 (LV) ± 2.7% 48%: 48%: ... 2.7% 4.4% Harris +5.1%: 538: through August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 47.3%: 43.6% 4.6%
September 30 – October 2, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50%: 4% [m] 46% 50%: 4% OnMessage Inc. (R) [61] [G] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47%: 8% Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [62] [H] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50%: 2% [g] InsiderAdvantage (R) [63] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0 ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Harris was seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians, and she and her campaign interacted more with Arab-American and Uncommitted leaders; [472] [473] however, Harris refused to halt weapons shipments to Israel or shift policy much from Biden, saying Israel has a right to defend itself.
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks. The latest polls from the New York Times /Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent and ...