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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 chief Nate Silver, puts Harris’ polling average at 47.1%, 2.5 points ahead of Trump’s 44.6%, as of its latest update on Aug. 18.
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
2.7% 4.4% Harris +5.1%: 538: through August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 47.3%: 43.6% 4.6% 4.5% Harris +3.7%: Silver Bulletin: through August 23, 2024
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
By early October 2008, FiveThirtyEight approached 2.5 million visitors per week, while averaging approximately 400,000 per weekday. [538 10] During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million page views. [538 11] On Election Day, November 4, 2008, the site had nearly 5 million page ...
That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...