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[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
Thus it is possible for the winner of the popular vote to end up losing the election, an outcome that has occurred on five occasions, most recently in the 2016 election. This is because presidential elections are indirect elections; the votes cast on Election Day are not cast directly for a candidate, but for members of the Electoral College ...
In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [538 6] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the ...
Live election results and related data for Senate, House and governor’s races. Senate Outlook 2014 Forecasts for 2014’s Senate races, based on HuffPost Pollster’s poll-tracking model.
The poll was conducted Nov. 1-4, 2016, ahead of the Nov. 8, 2016, election. It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to call the race for Trump . Trump finished with a 9.4 ...
2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 49.4% to 49.1% Here are some recent polls taken in Arizona, along with the dates they were conducted, the sample size and the margin of error:
It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.
The following is a table of United States presidential election results by state. They are indirect elections in which voters in each state cast ballots for a slate of electors of the U.S. Electoral College who pledge to vote for a specific political party's nominee for president. Bold italic text indicates the winner of the election