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  2. Checking whether a coin is fair - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is...

    One method is to calculate the posterior probability density function of Bayesian probability theory. A test is performed by tossing the coin N times and noting the observed numbers of heads, h , and tails, t .

  3. Likelihood function - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likelihood_function

    Consider a simple statistical model of a coin flip: a single parameter that expresses the "fairness" of the coin. The parameter is the probability that a coin lands heads up ("H") when tossed. can take on any value within the range 0.0 to 1.0. For a perfectly fair coin, =. Imagine flipping a fair coin twice, and observing two heads in two ...

  4. Fair coin - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_coin

    In probability theory and statistics, a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with probability 1/2 of success on each trial is metaphorically called a fair coin. One for which the probability is not 1/2 is called a biased or unfair coin. In theoretical studies, the assumption that a coin is fair is often made by referring to an ideal coin.

  5. Method of conditional probabilities - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Method_of_conditional...

    To apply the method to a probabilistic proof, the randomly chosen object in the proof must be choosable by a random experiment that consists of a sequence of "small" random choices. Here is a trivial example to illustrate the principle. Lemma: It is possible to flip three coins so that the number of tails is at least 2. Probabilistic proof.

  6. Coin flipping - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping

    Tossing a coin. Coin flipping, coin tossing, or heads or tails is the practice of throwing a coin in the air and checking which side is showing when it lands, in order to randomly choose between two alternatives. It is a form of sortition which inherently has two possible outcomes. The party who calls the side that is facing up when the coin ...

  7. Credibility theory - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_theory

    If the first flip was tails, there is a 100% chance you are dealing with a fair coin, so the next flip has a 50% chance of heads and 50% chance of tails. If the first flip was heads, we must calculate the conditional probability that the chosen coin was heads-only as well as the conditional probability that the coin was fair, after which we can ...

  8. Trump: Democrats made ‘BIG mistake’ getting Cheneys involved

    www.aol.com/news/trump-democrats-made-big...

    President-elect Trump said Democrats made a “BIG mistake” getting involved with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney. “The Democrats made a BIG ...

  9. Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

    When flipping a fair coin 21 times, the outcome is equally likely to be 21 heads as 20 heads and then 1 tail. These two outcomes are equally as likely as any of the other combinations that can be obtained from 21 flips of a coin. All of the 21-flip combinations will have probabilities equal to 0.5 21, or 1 in 2,097,152. Assuming that a change ...