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Balatro is a 2024 poker-themed roguelike deck-building game developed by LocalThunk and published by Playstack. It was released on Microsoft Windows, Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4, PlayStation 5, Xbox One, and Xbox Series X/S on February 20, 2024, with a port to macOS on March 1.
Suppose East is known to have 7 spades from the bidding and after seeing dummy you deduce West to hold 2 spades; then if your two lines of play are to hope either for diamonds 5-3 or clubs 4-2, the a priori probabilities are 47% and 48% respectively but (,,,) % and (,,,) % so now the club line is significantly better than the diamond line.
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Thus on the actual sequence of play, the odds are not even but one-half to one, or 1:2. East would retain queen from original ♠ KQ about one-third of the time and retain no spades from original ♠ K about two-thirds of the time. The principle of restricted choice posits that to finesse by playing the ♠ 10 is nearly twice as likely to succeed.
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