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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [ 3 ] Popper's idea to solve this problem is that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every swan is ...
Nicholas stresses therefore the surprising side and unpredictability of the black swan as well as their certainty (or unavoidability). Another concept that comes close to the concept of wild cards and black swans is the tipping point of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point, which actually is a special form of a wild card that realizes itself by ...
"Diversification, 'diworsification,' modern portfolio theory—it's got people distracted into mean variants, into risk-adjusted returns, and these are things that have made people poorer over the ...
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years.
The Roman satirist Juvenal wrote in AD 82 of rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno ("a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan"). [6] He meant something whose rarity would compare with that of a black swan, or in other words, as a black swan was not thought to exist, neither did the supposed characteristics of the "rare bird" with which it was being compared.
Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false. For example, "All swans are white" is falsifiable because "Here is a black swan" shows it to be false. The apparent contradiction seen in the case of a true but falsifiable statement disappears once we know the technical definition.