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X-13ARIMA-SEATS, successor to X-12-ARIMA and X-11, is a set of statistical methods for seasonal adjustment and other descriptive analysis of time series data that are implemented in the U.S. Census Bureau's software package. [3]
Once the seasonal influence is removed from this time series, the unemployment rate data can be meaningfully compared across different months and predictions for the future can be made. [3] When seasonal adjustment is not performed with monthly data, year-on-year changes are utilised in an attempt to avoid contamination with seasonality.
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For example, for monthly data one would typically include either a seasonal AR 12 term or a seasonal MA 12 term. For Box–Jenkins models, one does not explicitly remove seasonality before fitting the model. Instead, one includes the order of the seasonal terms in the model specification to the ARIMA estimation software. However, it may be ...
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This is an important technique for all types of time series analysis, especially for seasonal adjustment. [2] It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series (that could be used to reconstruct the original by additions or multiplications) where each of these has a certain characteristic or type of behavior.
The Berlin procedure (BV) is a mathematical procedure for time series decomposition and seasonal adjustment of monthly and quarterly economic time series. The mathematical foundations of the procedure were developed in 1960's at Technische Universität Berlin and the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is a rate that is adjusted to take into account typical seasonal fluctuations in data and is expressed as an annual total. SAARs are used for data affected by seasonality, when it could be misleading to directly compare different times of the year.