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In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses.The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days).
Taken together, two landmark papers in economic theory which were published before the field of Behavioral Economics emerged, the first is the paper "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory" by Armen Alchian from 1950 and the second is the paper "Irrational Behavior and Economic Theory" from 1962 by Gary Becker, both of which were published ...
In cognitive science and behavioral economics, loss aversion refers to a cognitive bias in which the same situation is perceived as worse if it is framed as a loss, rather than a gain. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] It should not be confused with risk aversion , which describes the rational behavior of valuing an uncertain outcome at less than its expected value .
At the time Thaler's conceptualisation of the endowment effect was in direct contrast to that of accepted economic theory, which assumed humans were completely rational when making decisions. Through his contrasting viewpoint, Thaler was able to offer a clearer understanding of how humans make economic decisions. [ 18 ]
In a similar vein, Mercier and Sperber describe a theory [51] for confirmation bias, and possibly other cognitive biases, which is a radical departure from the prevalent view, which holds that human reasoning is intended to assist individual economic decisions. Their view suggests that it evolved as a social phenomenon and that the goal was ...
Reference dependence is a central principle in prospect theory and behavioral economics generally. It holds that people evaluate outcomes and express preferences relative to an existing reference point, or status quo. It is related to loss aversion and the endowment effect. [1] [2]
In studies of the bias, options are presented in terms of the probability of either losses or gains. While differently expressed, the options described are in effect identical. Gain and loss are defined in the scenario as descriptions of outcomes, for example, lives lost or saved, patients treated or not treated, monetary gains or losses. [2]
Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment and decision making that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. [1] The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics .