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Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Even ahead of Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said that the district was a "toss-up," and 538's forecast had it listed as "likely Democrat." Nov 7, 2:19 PM Gonzalez ekes out win in ...
On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year. [538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high ...
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing largely to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016. [2] New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California , and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024. [ 3 ]
There were no major upsets yet in the Senate map either. ... could easily win the election. FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver ... the final election odds were forecast as 50-50 between ...