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Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won. [2] Each session begins by betting 1 unit, and ends by winning 1 unit of profit. If the gambler loses, the session continues and the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit.
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. [ 1 ]
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Even if the gambler can tolerate betting ~1,000 times their original bet, a streak of 10 losses in a row has an ~11% chance of occurring in a string of 200 plays. Such a loss streak would likely wipe out the bettor, as 10 consecutive losses using the martingale strategy means a loss of 1,023x the original bet.
Walters started gambling when he was 9 years old, when he bet the money he earned from his paper route on the New York Yankees to beat the Brooklyn Dodgers in the 1955 World Series. The Dodgers won and Walters lost the bet, but it did not deter him from gambling. Walters was a losing gambler as late as 1982. He had lost $50,000 by the time he ...
In 1946, Italy introduced a state-run pool for citizens to bet on football, called the Totocalcio. It was the only form of legalized football betting in the country until the late 1990s. For fans to win, they needed to correctly pick the outcome of 12 games. [42] A thirteenth game was added in 1951, and a fourteenth (but still called Thirteen ...
Betting systems based on statistical analysis have been around for a while, however they have not always been well known. One group that was known for their accurate predictions was called The Computer Group. They formed in Las Vegas in 1980 and successfully wagered on college football and basketball games for years making millions.
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