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The 1972 book The Limits to Growth discussed the limits to growth of society as a whole. This book included a computer-based model which predicted that the Earth would reach a carrying capacity of ten to fourteen billion people after some two hundred years, after which the human population would collapse. [7]
Annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968 and has since dropped to 1.1%. [1] According to the most recent United Nations' projections, the global human population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and would peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s, before decreasing, noting that fertility rates are falling worldwide.
Graph showing changes in global human population since 10,000 BC The evidence against a population bomb: Since the 1950s population growth rate has decreased, and is projected to decline further. A lecture that Ehrlich gave on the topic of overpopulation at the Commonwealth Club of California was broadcast by radio in April 1967. [ 22 ]
Human population projections are attempts to extrapolate how human populations will change in the future. [2] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. [3] Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. [4]
Population bottleneck followed by recovery or extinction. A population bottleneck or genetic bottleneck is a sharp reduction in the size of a population due to environmental events such as famines, earthquakes, floods, fires, disease, and droughts; or human activities such as genocide, speciocide, widespread violence or intentional culling.
Overpopulation or overabundance is a state in which the population of a species is larger than the carrying capacity of its environment.This may be caused by increased birth rates, lowered mortality rates, reduced predation or large scale migration, leading to an overabundant species and other animals in the ecosystem competing for food, space, and resources.
The outcomes from various possible human behaviour scenarios have been explored in a demographic model developed by Prof Chris Bystroff. [9] According to the Bystroff predictions, continuing with the growth economic paradigm will result in a rapid decrease in population numbers halving global population by 2040.
Zero population growth is often a goal of demographic planners and environmentalists who believe that reducing population growth is essential for the health of the ecosystem. Achieving ZPG in the short run is difficult because a country's population growth is often determined by economic factors, incidence of poverty, natural disasters, disease ...