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It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
The Edinburgh Tram Line 2 opened three years late in May 2014 with a final outturn cost of £776 million, which equals £628 million in 2004-prices. [7] Since the Edinburgh forecast, reference class forecasting has been applied to numerous other projects in the UK, including the £15 (US$29) billion Crossrail project in London. After 2004, The ...
The Bass model or Bass diffusion model was developed by Frank Bass. It consists of a simple differential equation that describes the process of how new products get adopted in a population. The model presents a rationale of how current adopters and potential adopters of a new product interact. The basic premise of the model is that adopters can ...
Forecasting. Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term.
Robin John Hyndman (born 2 May 1967) is an Australian statistician known for his work on forecasting and time series. He is Professor of Statistics at Monash University [1] and was Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Forecasting from 2005–2018. [2] In 2007 he won the Moran Medal from the Australian Academy of Science for his ...
v. t. e. Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings. [1][2][3] Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings ...
In policy analysis, forecasting future production of biofuels is key data for making better decisions, and statistical time series models have recently been developed to forecast renewable energy sources, and a multiplicative decomposition method was designed to forecast future production of biohydrogen. The optimum length of the moving average ...
Mean directional accuracy. (Redirected from Mean Directional Accuracy) Mean directional accuracy (MDA), also known as mean direction accuracy, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It compares the forecast direction (upward or downward) to the actual realized direction. It is defined by the following formula: