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A comparison between predictions and sensory input yields a difference measure (e.g. prediction error, free energy, or surprise) which, if it is sufficiently large beyond the levels of expected statistical noise, will cause the internal model to update so that it better predicts sensory input in the future.
Affective forecasting, also known as hedonic forecasting or the hedonic forecasting mechanism, is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the future. [1] As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.
Because of this, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in psychology. [1] Thinking about the future is studied under the label prospection. [2] Neuroscientific, developmental, and cognitive studies have identified many similarities to the human ability to recall past episodes. [3]
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that the prediction would come true. [1] In the phenomena, people tend to act the way they have been expected to in order to make the expectations come true. [2]
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.
Behavioral confirmation is a type of self-fulfilling prophecy whereby people's social expectations lead them to behave in ways that cause others to confirm their expectations. [1]
For example, if someone's brain predicts the presence of a snake as well as the unpleasant affect that would result upon encountering a snake ("interoceptive prediction"), that brain might categorize and construct an experience of "fear." This process takes place before any actual sensory input of a snake reaches conscious awareness.
Baruch, a psychology graduate student at the time, saw an opportunity in psychological research to explain this tendency. [8] Daniel Kahneman, who researched hindsight bias. In the early 70s, the investigation of heuristics and biases was a large area of study in psychology, led by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. [8]