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Financial correlations measure the relationship between the changes of two or more financial variables over time. For example, the prices of equity stocks and fixed interest bonds often move in opposite directions: when investors sell stocks, they often use the proceeds to buy bonds and vice versa. In this case, stock and bond prices are ...
Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P 500 price–earnings ratio (P/E) versus long-term Treasury yields (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance. [1]The P/E ratio is the inverse of the E/P ratio, and from 1921 to 1928 and 1987 to 2000, supports the Fed model (i.e. P/E ratio moves inversely to the treasury yield), however, for all other periods, the relationship of the Fed model fails; [2] [3] even ...
Specifically, stocks with steeper implied volatility smiles (i.e., higher jump risk) have higher expected returns, consistent with the equity premium puzzle. The author argues that this relationship between the slope of the implied volatility smile and stock returns can be explained by investors' preference for jump risk.
The rolling 120-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury has ticked into positive territory, which means stocks and yields are rising in tandem due to ...
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Bonds have a higher priority of repayment in the event of a company’s liquidation, which means they are safer than stocks – though you can still lose some or all of your money. It’s also ...
Because a bond is always anchored by its final maturity, the price at some point must change direction and fall to par value at redemption. A bond's market value at different times in its life can be calculated. When the yield curve is steep, the bond is predicted to have a large capital gain in the first years before falling in price later ...
In 2015, Fama and French extended the model, adding a further two factors — profitability and investment. Defined analogously to the HML factor, the profitability factor (RMW) is the difference between the returns of firms with robust (high) and weak (low) operating profitability; and the investment factor (CMA) is the difference between the returns of firms that invest conservatively and ...