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In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...
The polls and odds are constantly in flux, but you can find the latest polls we could find for each candidate as of 6 a.m. on Nov. 5, 2024: ABC News project 538 : The final poll shows Harris with ...
ABC News is projecting that Harris will win New Mexico's five electoral votes. ABC News is also projecting the state's U.S. Senate race for the Democratic incumbent, Martin Heinrich. Nov 6, 12:20 AM
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
The margin of victory in a presidential election is the difference between the number of Electoral College votes garnered by the candidate with an absolute majority of electoral votes (since 1964, it has been 270 out of 538) and the number received by the second place candidate (currently in the range of 2 to 538, a margin of one vote is only possible with an odd total number of electors or a ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...