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The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis ...
However the 10-year vs 3-month portion did not invert until March 22, 2019 and it reverted to a positive slope by April 1, 2019 (i.e. only 8 days later). [26] [27] The month average of the 10-year vs 3-month (bond equivalent yield) difference reached zero basis points in May 2019. Both March and April 2019 had month-average spreads greater than ...
Notably, Harvey's worked actually focused on the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year Treasury note as the most potent recession indicator, not the now-popular 2-year/10-year ...
[2] [3] To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted. [4] [5] [6] [7]
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It has been updated three times since, with the current version referred to as the STLFSI4. STLFSI3 used the past 90-day average backward looking secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) in two spreads, whereas the latest version uses the 90-day forward looking SOFR [1] [2] [3] [4]
A key part of the yield curve inverted on Tuesday, as the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield briefly rose above the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield for the first time since September 2019.
The target rate remained at 5.25% for over a year, until the Federal Reserve began lowering rates in September 2007. The last cycle of easing monetary policy through the rate was conducted from September 2007 to December 2008 as the target rate fell from 5.25% to a range of 0.00–0.25%.