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In time series analysis, a fan chart is a chart that joins a simple line chart for observed past data, by showing ranges for possible values of future data together with a line showing a central estimate or most likely value for the future outcomes. As predictions become increasingly uncertain the further into the future one goes, these ...
The Biden Administration increased the tariff rate on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% earlier this year. Tariffs on a wider scale should boost inflation, but when done correctly, they can have long ...
The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity. [1] It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest ...
Indeed, inflation, which was on a downward trajectory, has picked up its pace once again — standing at 3.5%, according to the latest consumer price index (CPI) data released April 10.
"Core PCE inflation fell surprisingly quickly in 2023, from a 4% annualized pace in the first half of the year to a 2% pace in the back half. We now expect the year-on-year rate to fall much more ...
Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of an economic indicator. The term is a portmanteau of "now" and "forecasting" and originates in meteorology.
“Against this backdrop, we would expect the Federal Reserve to be forced to pause its easing cycle in 2025 and the U.S. 10-year yield to stay above 4%,” Darmet wrote.
In 1995, the Senate Finance Committee appointed a commission to study CPI's ability to estimate inflation. The CPI commission found in their study that the index overestimated the cost of living by a value between 0.8 and 1.6 percentage points. If CPI overestimates inflation, then claims that real wages have