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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. The expression was used until ...
Indeterminism is the idea that events (or certain events, or events of certain types) are not caused, or are not caused deterministically. It is the opposite of determinism and related to chance . It is highly relevant to the philosophical problem of free will , particularly in the form of metaphysical libertarianism .
After an event has occurred, people often believe that they could have predicted or perhaps even known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would be before it occurred. Hindsight bias may cause distortions of memories of what was known or believed before an event occurred and is a significant source of overconfidence in ...
[6] For example, the representativeness heuristic is defined as "The tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood" of an occurrence by the extent of which the event "resembles the typical case." [13] The "Linda Problem" illustrates the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 [14]). Participants were given a description of "Linda ...
Whether or not it is all-encompassing in so doing, Newtonian mechanics deals only with caused events; for example, if an object begins in a known position and is hit dead on by an object with some known velocity, then it will be pushed straight toward another predictable point.
A black swan event, as analyzed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is an important and inherently unpredictable event that, once occurred, is rationalized with the benefit of hindsight. Another position of the black swan theory is that appropriate preparation for these events is frequently hindered by the pretense of knowledge of all the risks; in other ...
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that the prediction would come true. [1] In the phenomena, people tend to act the way they have been expected to in order to make the expectations come true. [2]
The Life Events and Difficulties Schedule is a psychological measurement of the stressfulness of life events. It was created by psychologists George Brown and Tirril Harris in 1978. [ 1 ] Instead of accumulating the stressfulness of different events, as was done in the Social Readjustment Rating Scale by Thomas Holmes and Richard Rahe, they ...