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[2] [4] In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. [8] The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules. [9] In 2021, Metaculus received an Effective altruism infrastructure fund grant ...
Horoscopes, where you can find insightful and accurate predictions for all twelve zodiac signs. Our team of expert astrologers provides daily horoscopes that offer guidance on love, career, and ...
The ability of the prediction market to aggregate information and make accurate predictions is based on the efficient-market hypothesis, which postulates that asset prices are fully reflecting of all publicly available information. For instance, according to the efficient-market hypothesis, existing share prices always include all the relevant ...
Prediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. This week was the biggest demonstration to back up that claim.
The prediction markets paint a different picture, though, and perhaps a more accurate one, Crane claims. Prediction markets website PredictIt currently places Trump ahead of Harris—and elsewhere ...
The Web Bot gained most of its notoriety for contributing to the 2012 phenomenon by predicting a cataclysm that would devastate the planet on 21 December 2012, possibly a reversing of Earth's magnetic poles or a small series of nuclear attacks leading up to a major attack during the year. The prediction did not call for a complete end of the world.
An economic forecaster, called "the world's most accurate economist," Christophe Barraud predicts Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election.
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.