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Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. [1] The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the analyst must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth.
The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ACH. [9] The SACH maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones. For example, two tested hypotheses could be that Iraq has WMD or Iraq does not have WMD.
Intelligence analysts "would rather use words than numbers to describe how confident we are in our analysis," a senior CIA officer who's served for more than 20 years told me. Moreover, "most consumers of intelligence aren't particularly sophisticated when it comes to probabilistic analysis. They like words and pictures, too.
Indicator analysis is a structured analytic technique used in intelligence analysis. It uses historical data to expose trends and identify upcoming major shifts in a subject area, helping the analyst provide evidence-based forecasts with reduced cognitive bias .
Cover of a National Intelligence Estimate. Analytic confidence is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability. The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model. An analytic confidence rating pairs with a statement ...
Some intelligence disciplines, especially technical ones, will analyze the same raw data in different ways for complementary purposes. For example, a signals intelligence collection platform will record all the electromagnetic signals it received from an antenna pointed to a particular target at a particular time.
The target-centric approach to intelligence is a method of intelligence analysis that Robert M. Clark introduced in his book "Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach" in 2003 [1] to offer an alternative methodology to the traditional intelligence cycle. Its goal is to redefine the intelligence process in such a way that all of the ...
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