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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
The Sunday Times described his 2007 book The Black Swan as one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. [5] Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6]
The firm speculated on a handful of unlikely-but-plausible black swan events that could happen this year. BCA has stuck to its recession call, predicting that stocks could tank 26% in 2025.
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
Still, Spitznagel—who's utilized Nassim Taleb, the statistician and academic who popularized the concept of the rare and unexpected event called a “black swan,” as a “distinguished ...
The concept of wild cards comes close to the black swan theory described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Black swans however can be seen as events that somehow are written in destiny (or the stars) and will occur anyhow. [7] The title refers to the "black swans" that existed already for millions of years in Australia ...
A Black Swan fund is an investment fund based on the black swan theory that seek to reap big rewards from sharp market downturns. They became more known after the financial crisis of 2007–2008. One example of a "Black Swan" fund is Universa, which was founded by Mark Spitznagel and advised by Nicholas Taleb.