Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed in an attempt to define uncertainty, identify its effects and establish strategies for managing it. [1] Uncertainty management theory was the first theory to decline the idea that uncertainty is ...
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
UK intelligence assessments use the PHIA "probability yardstick" for communicating probability: The National Intelligence Council's recommendations described the use of a WEP paradigm (table 2) in combination with an assessment of confidence levels ("high, moderate, low") based on the scope and quality supporting information:
Richards "Dick" J. Heuer, Jr. (July 15, 1927 – August 21, 2018) [2] was a CIA veteran of 45 years and most known for his work on analysis of competing hypotheses and his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. [3]
Especially in intelligence, both governmental and business, analysts must always be aware that the opponent(s) is intelligent and may be generating information intended to deceive. [ 3 ] [ 4 ] Since deception often is the result of a cognitive trap, Elsaesser and Stech use state-based hierarchical plan recognition (see abductive reasoning ) to ...
In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement.An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on.
The distinction between ambiguity aversion and risk aversion is important but subtle. Risk aversion comes from a situation where a probability can be assigned to each possible outcome of a situation and it is defined by the preference between a risky alternative and its expected value.
Uncertainty or incertitude refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information.It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown, and is particularly relevant for decision-making.