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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
Last updated Nov. 8, 2022. Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia.
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate race? An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”
Who’s ahead in the Florida Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”.
Who’s ahead in the Georgia Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Texas Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Massachusetts Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.