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The Global Challenges Foundation's 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average). [31] As of February 11, 2025, Metaculus users estimate a 0.6% probability of human extinction by 2100. [32]
Anthropic arguments FHI has studied include the doomsday argument, which claims that humanity is likely to go extinct soon because it is unlikely that one is observing a point in human history that is extremely early. Instead, present-day humans are likely to be near the middle of the distribution of humans that will ever live. [14]
A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, [2] even endangering or destroying modern civilization. [3] An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential is known as an "existential risk". [4]
Humans will soon go extinct unless we can find 5 more earths. We’re basically in the days of the dinosaurs, according to Stanford scientists.
Extinction risk: The probability of human extinction within a given timeframe. Extinction threat: A plausible and significant contributor to total extinction risk. Societal fragility: The potential for smaller damages to spiral into global catastrophic or extinction risk due to societal vulnerabilities, risk cascades, and maladaptive responses.
An uncertain factor is the influence of human technology such as climate engineering, [2] which could cause significant changes to the planet. [3] [4] For example, the current Holocene extinction [5] is being caused by technology, [6] and the effects may last for up to five million years. [7]
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