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Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique that can be used in the Monte Carlo method.The idea behind importance sampling is that certain values of the input random variables in a simulation have more impact on the parameter being estimated than others.
The best-known importance sampling method, the Metropolis algorithm, can be generalized, and this gives a method that allows analysis of (possibly highly nonlinear) inverse problems with complex a priori information and data with an arbitrary noise distribution. [101] [102]
The cross-entropy (CE) method is a Monte Carlo method for importance sampling and optimization. It is applicable to both combinatorial and continuous problems, with either a static or noisy objective. The method approximates the optimal importance sampling estimator by repeating two phases: [1] Draw a sample from a probability distribution.
Exponential Tilting is used in Monte Carlo Estimation for rare-event simulation, and rejection and importance sampling in particular. In mathematical finance [ 1 ] Exponential Tilting is also known as Esscher tilting (or the Esscher transform ), and often combined with indirect Edgeworth approximation and is used in such contexts as insurance ...
An illustration of Monte Carlo integration. In this example, the domain D is the inner circle and the domain E is the square. Because the square's area (4) can be easily calculated, the area of the circle (π*1.0 2) can be estimated by the ratio (0.8) of the points inside the circle (40) to the total number of points (50), yielding an approximation for the circle's area of 4*0.8 = 3.2 ≈ π.
The sequential importance resampling technique provides another interpretation of the filtering transitions coupling importance sampling with the bootstrap resampling step. Last, but not least, particle filters can be seen as an acceptance-rejection methodology equipped with a recycling mechanism.
Series of umbrella sampling simulations can be analyzed using the weighted histogram analysis method (WHAM) [2] or its generalization. [3] WHAM can be derived using the maximum likelihood method. Subtleties exist in deciding the most computationally efficient way to apply the umbrella sampling method, as described in Frenkel and Smit's book ...
In theoretical sampling the researcher manipulates or changes the theory, sampling activities as well as the analysis during the course of the research. Flexibility occurs in this style of sampling when the researchers want to increase the sample size due to new factors that arise during the research.