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Second, there are no national polls for Senate and governor, and polls of downballot races have historically been less accurate than presidential polls. Among individual states, the most accurate ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
Even if the polls are accurate, both political analysts agree that the accurate numbers will be revealed on Election Day. “Polls are only a prediction, but they don’t actually win the election.
The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would neither reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com : if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or LOESS .