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The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
For many of us, 2025 stretches ahead as a giant unknown. For trend forecasters, it’s already mapped out — or some of it, at least. Those in the business of predicting our next style choices ...
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
In statistics, a forecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability. Forecasting calculates the future, while an estimate attempts to establish the value of an existing quantity. [27] In the United States, President Hoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed by William F. Ogburn. Past statistics ...
Still, many forecasters agree that the U.S. is likely to experience slow growth for the foreseeable future. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Nov. 3 to Nov. 9 project ...
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning.
Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such ...